Thu, Nov 21st, 2024, 7:08UTC
 
News
    
9/06/18 Changes of index compositions Germany and Europe
  On 9/24/2018 quite a lot of component exchanges in EuroStoxx, Stoxx50, DAX, TecDAX, MDAX and SDAX will become effective. We did apply these changes already.
    
5/25/18 General Data Protection Regulation
  Because of the entry into force of the GDPR, we have closed the registration for the time being. All personal data that has not been explicitly released has been deleted.
    
12/23/17 Weekly market analyses at the end of 2017
  The next two periodical analyses are on public holidays, Christmas Day and New Year.
  Since there will be very few fresh quotes on these days around the world, we will generally use the Friday closing prices. The assessments are then available on Saturdays at 9:00 UTC.
  We wish you a wonderful time and an awesome, successful 2018.
    
4/12/17 new market BSE Sensex 50
  A new market consisting of the constituents of the BSE Sensex 50, which was established from BSE on 12/6/2016, was implemented. The index covers more than half of the assets of all Indian corporations.
The optimized machine learning älgorithms were used to perform technique determination.
    
2/06/17 new market GEX
  A new market consisting of the constituents of GEX (German Entrepreneurial Index) from Deutsche Börse AG was implemented.
The instruments are issued from owner-managed public companies.
The optimized machine learning älgorithms were used to perform technique analysis.
    
2/06/17 change of split limit in techique analysis
  The date limit for split of training and test data was set to 12/31/2014 for future analyses.
All data up to this date is used for learning optimum techniques, all data thereafter is used for approbation of the learned techniques.
  In this way bias-influenced techniques are eliminated. The remaining techniques usually are generalizing market behavior well and therefore are able to make pretty good predictions. The chronological impact of data makes it very hard to determine a reasonable partitioning to perform a cross validation.
    
4/01/16 Application Enhancement: Price Indexes
  
We developed equal-weighted price indexes for all markets without available standard index. They work in the following way:
  The base of computation is the current market composition. All indexes start in 2005 at a value of 100. It might be interesting that those indexes make markets objectively comparable thereby. Only markets which kick under-performers out speedy could take an advantage.
  TMarkets with standardized price indexes are: France (composite), FT30, Topix, BAX, Global Titans + all sector markets without permanently available index. The indexes are continuously adjusted.
    
8/11/15 An approach to "Merely Fundamental Techniques" (MF techniques)
  
Inherently it is not trivial to determine a universal technique which provides the matching trading strategy for each potential chart developing. Neverthelees, we compiled an approach which comes really close to that ambitiouns objective.
  The following considerations refer to long investments, the short logic is analogue with opposite signs.
  As so often the objective of MF techniques is to maximize yield - that means:
  We should be invested during relatively strong stock price changes, otherwise (sideways or slight change) we should be uninvested. An investment in a slight increasing instrument means abdiction of better investing opportunities. Wrong decisions have to be evened immediately.
  Moving averages solely are not fitting because they lag behind the chart and do not report lateral movement.
  Therefore the fundamental Relative Strength (fRS, dark gray curve beyond the chart) in combination with derived curves is used as a pro-cyclical signaler.
  The fRS graph has a similar face as the original chart, the crucial difference is the reference to zero. In a mathematical view the fRS might be seen as a kind of derivation of the chart.
  In general the chart increases, if the fRS is (clearly) positive and it declines, if the fRS is (clearly) negative. FRSs commuting around the zero line are especially unattractive.
  As a second criterion we use the fRS quarter year (short time!) moving average (pink). The intersections with the fRS usually generate practical pro-cyclical signals.
  With a trace of imagination one can recognize the change of tendency (concave <-> convex) at the intersections, especially on well pronounced charts. It is crucial that the intersections are chronologically before the change of tendency.
  As a safety criterion the short-time gradient of the moving quarter average of the fRS is used. Because such a thing does not exist for discontinuous functions we simply compare the current value with the 4 weeks before value (light gray - pink > gray => increasing, pink < gray => declining).
  
Currently this logic is adjusted:
Long:
Buy when the fRS rises above the quarter average AND when the quarter average is soaring (pink > gray)
Sell when the fRS falls under the quarter average
Short:
Buy when the fRS declines under the quarter average AND when the quarter average is falling (pink < gray) AND die fRS is less than zero
Sell when the fRS crosses the quarter averge or the zero line upward (≥).
The zero rule for shorts avoids generating of bear traps.
After a short sell an abstince period of 4 weeks follows to prevent short buys.
  
The MF techniques are implemented at these locations:
Big chart with long short switch - big chart icon in [assessment]
aside is an L or a S to view the generated MF tansaction history, if there is an open transaction.
The background color shows the to date result, which might be volatile for young transactions.
Quite a few histories develop unfavourable total results. This ist normal. Instruments with a constant long period trend ususally cannot have an impressing result for the opposite direction (without manipulation).
In open [Transactions] between best practice and standard techniques, due to descending chronological sorting the latest signals (resulting from weekly assessment) are on the top of each list.
  
The MF techniques are riskier than best practice techniques, the chart is the only information, there is no knowledge about market development.
Therefore before considering a fundamental signal the market situation, the current instrument ranking and the fundamental historical performance shoud be checked.
Needless to say that we never recommend consideration of anything at all.
Similar to all other techniques the MF techniques are just momentary conclusions reasoned by a computer program, too. Mostly beneficial, but sometimes fuzzy.
    
7/21/15 Application Enhancement: Instrument Chart (big) in [Assessment] chart - stats
  In addition to the chart the floating annual average and the standard deviation is displayed. This may be helpful in some situations.
  The real benefit is the curve at the bottom area, this is the chronologic fundamental relative stength. The advantage becomes obvious, when watching the chart near zero crossings.
  Most likeky instruments can be traded only by watching this curve - without taking care of the technical situation. We are working out a methodology.
    
7/10/15 Application Enhancement: real-time quotes real-time - additional figures
  In addition to the historical values high, low, average with absolute and percentaged difference relative to the latest quote, volatility and standard deviation are displayed. The latest 53 Monday closing rates form the basis for calculation.
  "volatility" means the percentaged difference between annual high and low. Negative volatilities show that the high came chronologically before the low. In that case the volatility is "how may percents is the low under the high". That is somewhat particular but someways logical.
    
6/29/15 Application Enhancement: techniques
  
The market relative strength raster was narrowed from months down to weeks. From now on relative strenghts from 8 up to 52 weeks are taken into consideration.
  
New Best Long and Best Short techniques were developed.
  The classical techniques purchased the fundamental strongest (weakest) instruments at the beginning of an invest and held until a sell signal recommended the liquidation of the invest. Sometimes this is unfavorable especially for long-term investments.
  The new techniques are able to exchange instruments during the invested phase by applying specific rules.
  An instrument is held as long as it remains in a certain range within the weekly fundamental ranking.
  A drop aut of this range throws a buy signal for the best (weakest) instrument in the ranking which is not in the deposit yet.
  
As an example "L28- 43 ex 11 (2)" means:
it is a best long technique
the market is monitored by a RS of 28 weeks,
if the market RS is 43 or greater (at least 43% of the components did rise within the previous 28 weeks), the technique goes in, thereunder ist goes completely out,
when a purchased instrument drops out of the best 11, it should be replaces by the strongest one of ranking which is not in the deposit yet at that time,
2 instruments should be held in deposit
  
Due to the increase of possible techniques in addition to the iterative and recursive methods a heuristic one is used for technique analysis.
  
For the following markets long techniques were determined: Nasdaq-100, DJ Composite, SDAX and SSE 50. Analysis for more markets is under progress.
    
6/28/15 Application Enhancement: assessment - transactions
  In addition to the chronological transactions there is a view which makes the conontribution of market components transparent. The view is ordered by descending percentaged p/l descending.
    
6/02/15 Application Enhancement: assessment
  The assessment table is now sortable by daily and weekly changes. Thereby short-term trends are straight recognizeable. The Share-o-matic week starts on Tuesday.
    
5/28/15 Application Change: navigation
  All controls have been combined into a fixed drop-down menu.
  For better manageability markets were split into (regional) markets and industries and Europe into Eurozone and Non-Eurozone.
    
5/11/15 Application Change: navigation
  There are only 2 levels group and detail left.
  When changing the group the last selected detail market of the group will be displayed.
  Regional markets are sorted by ISO 3166 ALPHA2.
    
2/05/15 Application Upgrade: market assessment - transactions
  In Transactions the icons for real-time quotes, relative strength chart and quick chart were added.
  This might be especially helpful for checking out the latest tendencies of open transactions.
  Furthermore clicks on buy or sell date show the RS charts on signal dates.
    
2/05/15 Application Upgrade: posting system
  An elementary posting system was established.
  The original intention was to stick news directly to markets.
  The present result can as well be used to post public annotations or to take down private notes.
  Use the rightmost icon in the assessment lines to post instrument related notes, use the button at the bottom to post market related notes.
    
1/13/15 New market (index) CAC Next 20 (France) implemented
  For the fundamental analysis of best practice techniques we applied the new figure ∅-RS (Average Relative Strength).
  The Average Relative Strength nearly always produces significant better yields.